DeWi 2025 Update

Context

In 2022, we outlined a thesis for crypto-enabled wireless networks coordinating capital and labor at web scale. Three years later, onchain DeWi revenues have grown >100×, while sector market cap has compressed and valuations for the reference asset (HNT) have normalized toward traditional growth multiples. This update revisits what we miscalled, what we called correctly, and our forward outlook.

What We Got Wrong

1) CBRS as the primary wedge

Cellular offload over CBRS proved far harder than expected. Beyond telco integrations, the real gatekeepers were Spectrum Access Systems (SAS) like Google, CommScope, Federated Wireless, and Key Bridge—whose fees, power limits, and operational frictions throttled growth. In 2024, Helium deprecated CBRS and pivoted to Wi‑Fi offload, where supply chains are mature and hardware is 60–80% cheaper, albeit at <$0.10/GB wholesale rates.

2) Financialized subscriber incentives

Early Mobile rewards attracted crypto‑native users but stalled mainstream growth. Shifting value toward simple plans (including a free plan), gift‑card redemption, and a privacy‑first kids plan re‑accelerated net adds.

3) Underestimating incumbent resiliency

Despite eSIM adoption and SIM‑swap headlines, postpaid churn barely budged. Cable MVNOs grew share via bundling, selling lower‑priced mobile to existing customers and improving retention of core products.

4) Multi‑token architectures

Helium reverted from subDAOs back to a single‑token model; Bittensor launched subnets but capital rotation into subnet tokens has been constrained by infra, liquidity, and incentive alignment. The design challenge remains aligning long‑term subnet value accrual with the parent asset.

What We Got Right

• Telco offload landed. Pilots expanded: multiple carriers now offload to Helium hotspots, with third‑party offload driving the majority of recurring onchain revenues.
• Unit economics improved. Top miners became profitable on organic data transfer revenues (ex‑inflation), enabling growth with far less wasted issuance.
• Fixed wireless tailwinds. Opening the 6 GHz band catalyzed competitive, low‑cost last‑mile alternatives; hardware and ISP growth reflect product‑market fit.
• Distribution rebundles. Brands, creators, retailers, and fintechs began bundling connectivity into existing products to increase LTV and stickiness.

Helium Economics (High Level)

Pricing: Today’s Wi‑Fi offload clears at ~$0.05–$0.10/GB vs the legacy $0.50/GB CBRS rate. Path to deflation: At subsidized pricing, deflation can arrive earlier with modest traffic growth; at market rates, it requires higher PB‑scale offload. A potential unification of Nova Labs’ offchain revenues with HNT would accelerate deflation timing.

What We Think Happens by Year‑End 2026

1. Helium Mobile approaches ~1M subs and raises a sizable web2 growth round rather than selling.
2. Third‑party offload scales toward ~$20M ARR at subsidized rates as pilots expand into rollouts.
3. HNT becomes the sole Helium asset via an equity–token unification (with some supply adjustment).
4. DAWN mainnet launches on Solana; fixed wireless leadership is recognized by the market.
5. Multi‑DePIN “black‑box” mining distributes rewards from 10+ networks to early deployers.

Plus a set of lower‑conviction predictions around branding/redenomination, global expansion, fintech eSIMs, cable vs telco performance, AI‑RAN signaling, and CBRS policy risk.